From garden to fields: The difficult path of the potato

Abstract

The article considers the structural shifts in the Russian potato market from 1991 to 2025. Based on the Rosstat data, agricultural censuses and household budget surveys, the authors identify long-term trends in the potato price dynamics, consumption, production and economic affordability. Thus, despite periodic price jumps, in the long run the potato has steadily become cheaper in real terms, while simultaneously losing significance in the consumer basket under the rising population income. The authors focus on the deep transformation of the production structure - a rapid shift in dominance from households (their share in production fell from 90% in the 1990s to 50% in 2022) to the commercial sector (agricultural enterprises and (peasant) farms). This shift is determined by the declining economic viability of household production compared to large enterprises implementing new technologies. The authors warn of risks to food security associated with the decline in household production outpacing growth in the commercial sector, which potentially leads to increased price volatility, and propose government support measures aimed at stimulating cooperation, facilitating access to land, and increasing production efficiency to ensure a stable potato market.