“What is the difference between weather forecasts and economic forecasts?”

Abstract

The interview with Mikhail Ksenofontov, DSc (Economics), Head of the Laboratory at the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences, focuses on the challenges of forecasting in economic science and policies. Two scientists discuss the evolution of approaches to forecasting from the late Soviet period to the present time; the issues of forecast accuracy, their alternative nature, fallibility and the influence of the subjectivity factor (on the examples from energy industry and agriculture); economic growth assessments and criteria, its speed, optimality and proportionality; the features of forecasting approaches in natural and social sciences (on the examples of weather forecasts and economic forecasts). In conclusion, the spatial development design is mentioned in connection with issues of assessing the scale of social-economic differentiation.